The Oscars are incredibly close now so it is that time of year. It’s predictions time. I’m going to be going through every category and giving you who I think will win, and who I think should win (although there are some categories where I haven’t really seen enough of the nominees to say who should win). So lets get into my predictions for the 90th Academy Awards.
Best Picture
This was the hardest pick for me. I’ve gone back and forth between The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri with Get Out occasionally crossing my mind as well. I think under some of the older ballot systems Three Billboards would have taken it, but now that there’s preferential ballot where all the nominees are ranked by voters it could end up falling short. Three Billboards is one of the most divisive of the nominees, with some backlash occurring, and that could see it sitting at the bottom of the list for some voters. Some have suggested this is why Moonlight was able to cause the big upset against La La Land last year. Whereas The Shape of Water is being fairly universally praised, and is a film that as well as topping many lists might also place extremely high on other voters lists. I do have a nagging feeling that Get Out may cause a huge upset just because of the lack of Director nomination for Three Billboards and The Shape of Water not getting a SAG ensemble nomination, but I see that more likely to happen in the Screenplay categories. So after all the dithering and debating I’ve been doing I have settled on The Shape of Water, however my personal pick would Lady Bird. I would be absolutely delighted with any of my Top 5 (see my rankings here) because it has truly been a wonderful year for film.
My Prediction: The Shape of Water
My Pick: Lady Bird
Best Actress
Unlike Best Picture this is a pretty sewn up category, and that’s despite the fact that it’s an incredibly strong one. McDormand has been making a fairly clean sweep of it at awards ceremonies this year, claiming the SAG, BAFTA, and Golden Globe awards. And as magnificent as she is I would have to go for Saoirse Ronan, who’s performance as the titular Lady Bird in Greta Gerwig’s coming of age drama is magnificent. She is completely enthralling, owning a film that is almost completely hers. Ronan makes you laugh, cry, frustrates you, and makes you care about her. As I said this is an incredibly strong year, and against other competition Margot Robbie or Sally Hawkins could easily have been the favourites, and we should really just celebrate how many wonderful leading actress performances we were treated to this year.
My Prediction: Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My Pick: Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
Best Actor
I cannot begrudge Gary Oldman the Best Actor Oscar he will inevitably win. He’s absolutely sensational as Churchill, and you’d struggle to recognise that it’s Gary Oldman. But for me no one comes close to Timothée Chalamet’s incredible, mature, career defining performance in Call Me By Your Name. It was something so special, that truly deserves an Oscar. But he’s only 22, and Oldman will win the Oscar for his hugely impressive body of work as much as for Darkest Hour, much like DiCaprio did with The Revenant or Scorsese with The Departed.
My Prediction: Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
My Pick: Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
Best Director
Best Director may be one of the most stacked categories so far, but going into the Oscars it is looking like Guillermo del Toro’s award to lose. He took home the big prize at the DGA Awards, as well as the BAFTA and Golden Globe. His direction on The Shape of Water is stunning and he manages to pull all these different genres together in a truly beautiful story. He is truly deserving of the award, and I will be thrilled if he takes it.
My Prediction: Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
My Pick: Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
Best Supporting Actress
Much like Frances McDormand Allison Janney has be winning virtually all the awards for her brilliant turn as Tonya Harding’s mother in I, Tonya. Janney is funny, cruel, and at time a sympathetic character in the film, and it’s easy to see why she’s nominated. Many will argue for Laurie Metcalf in Lady Bird, but as tremendous as she is no one can compete with the sheer presence Janney has whenever she’s on screen during I, Tonya in my opinion.
My Prediction: Allison Janney – I, Tonya
My Pick: Allison Janney – I, Tonya
Best Supporting Actor
At the start of awards season it looked like there might be a big battle shaping up between Willem Dafoe and Sam Rockwell. But as Rockwell has kept winning, Dafoe’s chances have kept disappearing. Personally from these nominees I would go with Richard Jenkins for his role as Giles in The Shape of Water, the protagonists frustrates artist neighbour hiding his sexuality for the world. He brings a deft comedic touch to the film, as well as so much heart. However in my eyes the true recipient of this award should have been Michael Stuhlbarg for Call Me By Your Name, how he wasn’t even nominated is beyond my comprehension.
My Prediction: Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My Pick: Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
Best Adapted Screenplay
I am still thrilled to see Logan recognised in the Screenplay category, and think a lot of these nominees are really great, but this is clearly Call Me By Your Name’s category. I can’t really see the Academy rewarding Call Me By Your Name elsewhere, but it is the only Best Picture Nominee to be featured in this category, meaning it will probably be their chance to give it an award. I think it is completely deserving as James Ivory’s Screenplay is a wonderful look at first love, and the scene he wrote between Elio and his father towards the end of the film is one of the most powerful from the year.
My Prediction: Call Me By Your Name
My Pick: Call Me By Your Name
Best Original Screenplay
This may be the most difficult category for me to pick from. On the prediction side this is essentially a two horse race between Three Billboards and Get Out. Three Billboards won at both the Golden Globes and BAFTAs, but Get Out took home the WGA Award. It’s an incredibly hard race to call, and as much as I think Get Out may very well end up taking it, I’m going to put my chips down on Three Billboards. But as far as I’m concerned any one of these 5 films would be worthy winners for their wonderful screenplays. In the end I think I would edge towards Lady Bird. Greta Gerwig’s coming of age drama about a mother/daughter relationship is beautiful, moving, emotional, and incredibly relatable. It’s a brilliant screenplay and the one that stands out the most for me for its ability to have me both crying and laughing all at once.
My Prediction: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My Pick: Lady Bird
Best Animated Feature Film
Coco will almost certainly be picking up the Best Animated Feature Film Award, and I will be delighted for it when it does. Pixar have delivered a brilliant, beautiful, and heartwarming film that truly deserves this Oscar. But Loving Vincent is another film that equally deserves it. Making an animated film through hand drawn pictures is the traditional way of doing it, but painting every one of the frames in the style of Vincent Van Gogh just makes even more beautiful. Maybe it’s because I love to see something a bit different in film, but I would love to see Loving Vincent recognised.
My Prediction: Coco
My Pick: Loving Vincent
Best Foreign Language Film
This category appears to be a big race between Chili’s A Fantastic Woman and Sweden’s The Square, although Loveless, from Russia, is definitely still in the mix. I haven’t yet managed to see any of these, although The Square and A Fantastic Woman are definitely on my list. In the end I think I’m going to edge towards A Fantastic Woman due to its timely portrayal of an important issue, and the Academy’s tendency to overlook more comedic films, like the satirical drama The Square.
My Prediction: A Fantastic Woman
My Pick: N / A
Best Documentary Feature
This is another category where I haven’t seen any of the nominees, but from what I can tell Faces Places is the Documentary that most people are tipping to take home the award. It has received a huge amount of acclaim from Critics and has already claimed numerous smaller awards.
My Prediction: Faces Places
My Pick: N / A
Best Original Score
Ever since I saw The Shape of Water I was in complete agreement with all the award shows that were giving the win to Alexandre Desplat, because it’s a beautiful score filled with that fantastical fairytale quality. But then I saw Phantom Thread, and even more than the wonderful acting and craft in making the film it was Jonny Greenwood’s score that really stood out to me from that film. It was delicate, beautiful, and eerie. The Shape of Water is my one of my absolute favourites of all the Oscar films, but Greenwood’s score should be taking home the prize on the night in my opinion.
My Prediction: The Shape of Water
My Pick: Phantom Thread
Best Original Song
There is just a sense of inevitability for me that The Greatest Showman will be winning Best Original Song. Even though, to me, ‘This Is Me’ just sounds like a generic pop song that you might hear on the radio and quickly forget. Instead Remember Me from Coco should be winning this award, because it is such a pivotal song to that film. In fact it is the song that the film is essentially built around and defines numerous relationships, whereas This Is Me is just one of a number of fairly generic songs about being yourself. I would also much rather see ‘The Mystery of Love’ from Call Me By Your Name win, as it captures the dreamy haze so much of the film falls in so beautifully.
My Prediction: “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman
My Pick: “Remember Me” from Coco
Best Sound Editing
In both sound categories I’m going for Dunkirk. It’s the clear favourite, and won the big prize at the Cinema Audio Society Awards recently. With limited dialogue the sound in Nolan’s war epic is so crucial, and both the sound editing and mixing cane together, along with the score, to create such powerful atmosphere. I’ll never forget just how crisp and terrifying the gun shots in the film were, and how it felt as though bullets were flying past my head when watching Dunkirk.
My Prediction: Dunkirk
My Pick: Dunkirk
Best Sound Mixing
See above.
My Prediction: Dunkirk
My Pick: Dunkirk
Best Production Design
Either The Shape of Water or Blade Runner 2049 would be worthy winner of the Best Production Design Oscar this year. The Shape of Water brought that grotty 1960s Baltimore lab to life as well of those beautifully designed apartments. Meanwhile Blade Runner 2049 really brought that future world of the franchise back, and expanded it in wonderful ways. I think The Shape of Water is likely to edge the race just because it is the film with more Academy support behind given the nominations it garnered, where the personally I was a little more sucked into the world that Blade Runner 2049 created.
My Prediction: The Shape Of Water
My Pick: Blade Runner 2049
Best Cinematography
Surely this HAS to be Roger Deakins’ year. Blade Runner 2049 is one of the most beautifully shot films I’ve ever seen at the cinema. He has been nominated fourteen times without ever winning, something that is an absolute travesty, and something the Academy will surely put right this year. The Shape of Water is probably the one that might upset it, and it’s definitely worth noting Rachel Morrison becoming the first woman to be nominated for Best Cinematography for Mudbound, but surely this is Deakins’ year.
My Prediction: Blade Runner 2049
My Pick: Blade Runner 2049
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Gary Oldman, a hugely well known actor, is completely unrecognisable as Winston Churchill. The makeup work done to make him look like Churchill is stunning and completely transformative. For all of that Darkest Hour has to be the favourite of these three. It will probably be helped by being one of the Best Picture nominees meaning that it may have slightly more eyes on it than either Wonder or Victoria and Abdul.
My Prediction: Darkest Hour
My Pick: Darkest Hour
Best Costume Design
The costumes are so important to Phantom Thread, a film about a fashion designer and couturier, that it’s hard to see beyond Mark Bridge’s beautiful work on Phantom Thread. If the dresses and costumes didn’t look so stunningly beautiful then the film, and the lead character’s position, wouldn’t work or be anywhere as believable.
My Prediction: Phantom Thread
My Pick: Phantom Thread
Best Film Editing
Dunkirk appears to be the film with all the momentum behind it going into the Editing race at the Oscars. For me that’s a huge shame because the editing in Baby Driver had to be so spot on and perfect to make those action scenes (or even walks to get coffee) flow with the music. Without the incredible editing work from Paul Machliss and Jonathan Amos Baby Driver just would not have worked. I hope I’m wrong and that Baby Driver can deliver an upset, but it is looking like Dunkirk will take this one.
My Prediction: Dunkirk
My Pick: Baby Driver
Best Visual Effects
Blade Runner 2049 and War for the Planet of the Apes will be battling it out for the Visual Effects award this year. Given that both Rise and Dawn lost in this category for the rebooted Planet of the Apes franchise I feel as thought the Academy may reward War as the closing chapter to the trilogy. The work that they have done in pushing forward visual effects and motion capture has been incredible, and this may be an award for the franchise rather than this specific film. Indeed if either Rise or Dawn had won, I would be going for Blade Runner 2049, but as it is I’ll stick with War for the Planet of the Apes.
My Prediction: War for the Planet of the Apes
My Pick: Blade Runner 2049
Best Live Action Short Film
I’m going for Reed Van Dyk’s short because it’s a hugely topical subject matter that will be weighing very heavily on the minds of the Academy voters.
My Prediction: DeKalb Elementary
My Pick: N / A
Best Documentary Short Subject
Another short that may well win based on its subject being an incredibly important issue of the day, I’m going Kate Davis and David Heilbroner’s documentary about a black teacher being stopped and arrested by by a white police officer in Texas.
My Prediction: Traffic Stop
My Pick: N / A
Best Animated Short Film
Set before Cars 3, Lou is yet another excellent short from Pixar. The shorts before Pixar films always have the advantage of being generally more widely seen and heard about, and in these categories that really can make the difference.
My Prediction: Lou
My Pick: N / A